Textile and apparel industry: stock selection logic in the textile and apparel sector under declining risk appetite: white horse defense, shell resource offense
Investment points
In the first quarter of 2016, the textile and apparel sector performed flat. Since the beginning of the year, risk appetite has declined significantly, and the logic of transformation and mergers in the textile and apparel sector has been suppressed. From the performance of individual stocks in the sector, excluding the factors of restructuring and sub-new stocks, the top performance targets in the first quarter were accompanied by high delivery, new themes or excellent performance. The lower performance targets are all due to factors such as the continuous progress of the transformation that has been slower than market expectations, the hot topic of the subject has passed, or the poor performance of the performance. Last year's glory is no longer there. At the same time, we see that the performance trend of the sector is generally poor, and the valuation pressure still needs to be digested.
The view of the industry in the second quarter of 2016: value first, subject matter second. From the perspective of funding, the current two cities have repeatedly created land volume, and the balance of the two financings has gradually declined. However, considering the possibility of local social security funds entering the market in the future and the successful inclusion of A shares in the MSCI in June, in the medium and long term, the two cities will start in the second half of the year. The transaction value and market sentiment are expected to gradually recover. From a policy perspective, the government expects the slow cow to be very firm. In view of the current domestic and foreign macro financial environment, there are still variables, and the stock market is still in the process of constant balance, and there is not much room for up and down.From a fundamental point of view, clothing Exit The performance of the retail and retail sides is still poor, and the decline in the demand side will force listed companies to seek more effectively Upgrade,However, a successful transformation will not happen overnight. From the company's point of view, the performance trend of performance stocks is still interesting, and the theme stocks can be described as a mess. Therefore, we believe that the textile and apparel sector will hardly have relative gains compared to other sectors in the second quarter, and the recommended value of revenue is the first, followed by themes (themes with larger expectations are needed to get involved). In addition, the postponement of the registration system is conducive to the value of Shell Resources.
Stock selection logic: white horse defense, shell resource offense. The white horse label of the textile and apparel sector mainly depends on each sub-industry. Under the industry downturn, it quickly grabs the market share of competitors. Increasing the entry barrier is the key. At the same time, combined with the performance trend of the interim report, we are relatively optimistic about the leisure & children's clothing industry-Semir apparel and color spinning. Yarn-Huafu Mélange. With the shelving of the strategic emerging board and the slowing down of the registration system, the previously unreserved shell resource targets are expected to return to the stage. Since the progress of the transformation and reorganization of the shell company is difficult to grasp, the success rate of adopting the method of combined configuration is higher. Similarly, a good shell resource generally has the following commonalities: 1. The smaller the market value, the better, because the acquisition cost will be lower; 2. The private major shareholder is better than the state-owned major shareholder, and the lower the proportion of major shareholders, the better; 3. , The lower the level of profitability, the easier to obtain shells with higher asset-liability ratios.
Based on the above, we suggest to pay attention to: Shanghai Sanmao, Langsha shares and Sanfangxiang.
risk warning. The pace of company transformation and mergers and acquisitions in the industry is lower than expected; the market is systemic risk.
